000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091548
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 09 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave extending from 07N108W to 15N108W is 
dissipating, and will likely be soon dropped from the surface 
analysis. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
currently observed to the s of 10N within 90 nm of the wave 
axis, but is primarily associated with the eastern extent of the 
monsoon trough.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed over 
the e portion of the discussion area within 300 nm either side 
of a line from 04N78W to 14N103W. 

A low level trough extends n to s from 16.5N102W to 10N100W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 
about 75 nm either side of the trough axis.

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 10N107W to 07N116W where 
scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms, and continues 
westward to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed within 90 nm either side of a line from 
09N105W to 08N115W.

An inverted surface trough is analyzed from 09N130W to 16N127W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 
90 nm of 12.5N127W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A nw to se orientated ridge extends across the EPAC waters just 
w of the offshore zones, with the associated pressure gradient 
maintaining a moderate to locally fresh nw breeze w of the Baja 
Peninsula through Tue night. The exception is that locally 
strong nw winds are expected across the near shore waters n of 
26N this evening and again on Sun evening. Another round of 
large nw swell in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas will arrive along 
32N on Sat evening, spread s to along 30N late Sun night, reach 
along 27.5N on Mon night and then begin to subside from the s. 

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly flow expected n 
of 30N through Sat, then a fresh to locally strong sw pulse is 
forecast from 30N to 31N on Sat night through early Sun night, 
with seas building to about 5 ft. Light and variable winds are 
expected s of 30N through Tue night.
 
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light northerly drainage flow expected 
through Tue night.

Mexican offshore waters elsewhere s of 23N: Light to gentle s to 
w flow, and 3 to 5 seas forecast through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas area 
expected n of 07N, and moderate southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft 
seas forecast s of 07N through Tue night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A 1019 mb surface high is quasi-stationary near 26N128W with a 
ridge extending se to near 11N108W. Gentle to locally moderate 
anticyclonic flow is observed s of the ridge to along 10N. 
Moderate to fresh sw flow is observed n of the surface high and 
to the e of a weakening cold front extending sw from 32N127W to 
25N140W. Light n flow is noted nw of the front. The front will 
stall from 32N120W to 27N135W to 25N140W on Fri night and 
gradually wash out through Sat night with a ridge from 32N138W 
to 08N110W.  

$$
Nelson