000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 08 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES... A tropical wave extending from 07N111W to 14N111W has been moving w at 12 kt over the past 24 hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed to the s of 11N within 90 nm of the wave axis. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed near 09N128W with a surface trough extending n to near 14N127W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the low, and within 90 nm either side of the trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A weak monsoon trough extends from 09N82W to 05N90W. A more defined monsoon trough is analyzed from 10N104W to 07N115W where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms and extends nw through an embedded 1012 mb surface low at 09N128W, then continues w to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm of 07N78W, within 120 nm either side of a line from 05N87W to 11N90W to 15N96W, within 60 nm of 12.5N103.5W, and within 60 nm either side of a line from 09N108W to 07N119W to 04N125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A nw to se orientated ridge extends across the EPAC waters just w of the offshore zones, with the associated pressure gradient maintaining a light to locally moderate nw breeze w of the Baja Peninsula to the n of 25N, and a moderate to fresh w to nw breeze s of 25N. The exception is that locally strong w to nw winds are expected during tonight across the coastal waters near Cabo San Lucas. The pressure gradient will tighten on Fri with moderate to locally fresh nw flow developing to the n of 25N. Another round of large nw swell in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas will arrive along 32N on Sun, spread s to along 30N late Sun night, reach along 27N on Mon evening and then begin to subside. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly flow expected n of 30N through Sat, then a fresh to locally strong sw breeze is forecast from 30N to 31N on Sat and Sun nights, with seas building to about 5 ft. Light and variable winds are expected s of 30N through Mon night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate northerly drainage flow expected tonight. Mexican offshore waters elsewhere s of 23N: light to gentle s to w flow, and 3 to 5 seas forecast through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas area expected n of 08N, and moderate to fresh southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas forecast s of 08N through early Fri. Light to moderate southerly flow and 3 to 6 ft seas, then forecast through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1019 mb surface high is analyzed at 27N126W with a ridge extending se to near 11N110W. Gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow is observed s of the ridge to along 10N. Moderate to fresh sw flow is observed n of the surface high and to the e of a weak cold front extending sw from 32N131W to 28N140W. Moderate n flow is noted nw of the front. The front will stall from 32N120W to 25N140W on Fri night and gradually wash out through Sat night. $$ Nelson