000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 558 UTC Wed Jun 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N96W to 14N96W. This wave is moving west around 20 kt. TPW satellite imagery shows this wave is embedded in a large area of deep moisture. Short term model guidance suggests this wave possesses very weak troughing in the middle levels of the atmosphere. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. A tropical wave extends from 07N106W to 15N106W. This wave is collocated with a 1010 mb surface low centered near 11N106W. The wave is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is situated on the western edge of an area of deep layer moisture. Short term model guidance suggests this wave coincides with distinct troughing in the middle layers of the atmosphere. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this wave is observed from 06N to 14N between 103W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1008 mb over Colombia near 10N75W to 08N79W to 10N88W, then resumes near 08N108W to 06N115W to 09N126W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N131W to 09N138W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is found southward from the monsoon trough to 04N between 75W and 88W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 07N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 136W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The long period NW to N swell are still arriving in the waters of Baja California Norte, but they continue to subside. Seas currently range between 4 and 6 ft across the offshore waters of the peninsula. The seas will subside to between 3 and 5 feet by Saturday, then will build on Sunday and Monday as winds increase to fresh to strong speeds between southern California and Baja California Norte. A low pressure trough over Baja California Sur will accentuate the winds near Cabo San Lucas through next Tuesday night. Fresh winds will become locally strong close to the Cape, especially at night as seas build to around 7 ft. S of Acapulco and Manzanillo, a few showers and thunderstorms could form between the monsoon trough and 15N today and tonight as the northern portion of a tropical wave migrates westward. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds will prevail except moderate to occasionally fresh SW to S winds will affect the northern waters due to stronger low pressure troughing over Baja California Norte. Winds over the Gulf N of 29N could become locally strong Saturday night through Monday as high pressure ridging in from the west tightens the pressure gradient. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergence of light SW flow into the monsoon trough and opposing drainage flow along the coastal terrain of Central America will continue to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily north of 03N along the coastline. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible in and near showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will generally prevail N of 10N. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected S of 10N with corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft as cross- equatorial southwest swell augment combined seas. Seas will peak between 8 and 9 ft S of western Panama Thursday and Friday as S to SW flow becomes fresh, then winds and seas will slowly subside to a range of 4 to 6 ft by Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure ridging is generating gentle to moderate trades across the waters N of the intertropical convergence zone, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. A weakening cold front is forecast to push SE of 30N140W Thursday. The front will gradually dissipate as it continues ESE across the northern waters through Saturday. Expect moderate winds both ahead of and behind the front. Otherwise, marine conditions are expected to change little during the next several days. $$ cam