000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062144 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2014 UTC Tue Jun 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N94W to a 1008 mb low near 10N94W to 07N93W. The wave is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. TPW satellite imagery shows this wave is embedded in a large area of deep moisture. Associated convection is described in the section below. A tropical wave extends its axis from 16N106W to 09N105W to 08N104W, moving west at around 10 kt. This wave is situated on the leading edge of an area of deep layer moisture. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1008 mb surface low near 09.5N93.5W to another 1009 mb surface low near 09.5N105W to 06N115W. The ITCZ extends from 06N115W to 09N128W then resumes near 08N131W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 13N E of 107W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 132W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly winds that were occurring offshore of southern California have diminished. Resultant fresh northerly swells which were sneaking into the waters of Baja California norte are beginning to subside. Seas of 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters of the peninsula will diminish Wednesday night through Thursday night, then will build thereafter through the weekend as winds increase again to fresh to strong from southern California to Baja California norte. Winds will pulse to fresh category near Cabo San Lucas by that time also helping to build seas locally up to 6 to 8 ft. S of Acapulco and Manzanillo, a few showers and thunderstorms could form between the monsoon trough and 15N as the northern portion of a tropical wave migrates westward. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds will prevail except occasionally moderate southerly winds in the northern waters due to a locally tight pressure gradient. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergence of light SW flow into the monsoon trough and opposing drainage flow along the coastal terrain of Central America will generate scattered to numerous mainly overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily north of 03N along the coastline. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible in and near showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds will prevail generally N of 10N accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected S of 10N with corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft as cross-equatorial southwest swell augment combined seas. Seas will peak between 8 and 9 ft S of western Panama Thursday and Friday as S to SW flow becomes fresh, then winds and seas will slowly subside to between 4 and 6 ft by Friday night through Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh northerly swells of 7 to 8 ft N of 29N between 118W and 125W will subside this evening as the supporting winds N of the area continue to diminish. Weak high pressure ridging is supporting gentle to moderate trades across the waters N of the convergence zone, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. A weak cold front is forecast to drop SE of 30N140W Thursday, gradually washing out as it continues to the E-SE across the northern waters through Saturday. Expect moderate winds both ahead of and behind the front. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions is anticipated through the next several days. $$ ERA