000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061522 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1522 UTC Tue Jun 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave reaches from 05N to 15N along 92W with low pressure along the wave near 09.5N92W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. TPW satellite imagery shows this wave is embedded in a large area of deep moisture. Associated convection is described in the section below. A tropical wave reaches from 05N104W to 16N105W with weak 1008 mb low pressure near 09.5N104.5W, moving west at around 10 kt. This wave is situated on the leading edge of an area of deep layer moisture. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to low pressure near 09.5N92W to low pressure near 09.5N104.5W to 06N117W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N117W to 09N127W where an embedded surface trough extends from 06N131W to 11N127W, then resumes from 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 06N E of 80W, from 04N to 07N between 87W and 90W, and also from 03N to 12N between 91W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 15N between 103W and 107W, and within 120 nm S of the axis between 110W and 130W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm W of the embedded trough axis, and also from 06N to 08N between 135W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly winds that were occurring offshore of southern California have diminished. Resultant fresh northerly swells which were sneaking into the waters of Baja California norte are beginning to subside. Seas of 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters of the peninsula will diminish Wednesday night through Thursday night, then will build thereafter as winds increase again to fresh to strong from southern California to Baja California norte. Winds will also pulse to fresh near Cabo San Lucas helping to build seas locally up to 6 to 8 ft. S of Acapulco and Manzanillo, a few showers and thunderstorms could form between the monsoon trough and 15N as the northern portion of a tropical wave migrates westward. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds will prevail except occasionally moderate southerly winds in the northern waters due to a locally tight pressure gradient. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergence of light southwest flow into the monsoon trough and opposing drainage flow along the coastal terrain of Central America will generate scattered to numerous mainly overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily north of 04N along the coastline. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible in and near showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds will prevail generally north of 10N accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are expected S of 10N with corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft as cross-equatorial southwest swell augment combined seas. Seas will peak between 8 and 9 ft S of western Panama Thursday and Friday as S to SW flow becomes fresh, then winds and seas will slowly subside to between 4 and 6 ft Friday night through Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh northerly swells of 7 to 9 ft N of 29N between 118W and 128W will subside as the supporting winds N of the area continue to diminish. Weak high pressure ridging is supporting gentle to moderate trades across the waters N of the convergence zone, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. A weak cold front is forecast to drop SE of 30N140W Thursday, gradually washing out as it continues to the E-SE across the northern waters through Saturday. Expect moderate winds both ahead of and behind the front. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions is anticipated through the next several days. $$ LEWITSKY