000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050911
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 UTC Mon Jun 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave reaches from 03N102W to 16N102W, moving west 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
associated with the tropical wave is found in an area bounded by 
15N103W to 09N95W to 04N95W to 04N102W to 15N103W. The tropical 
wave is poorly reflected at the surface, but does exhibit a 
modest signature in model guidance for the low to mid levels of 
the atmosphere.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to 09N82W to 12N88W 
to 13N93W, then resumes from 09N103W to 08N112W. The 
intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 08N112W to 
08N125W to 06N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 10N between 
103W and 111W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Persistent ridging over the area will maintain gentle to 
moderate west to northwest winds through Friday night. Fresh to 
strong winds will occur near Los Cabos Thursday through Saturday,
mainly at night as the pressure gradient tightens west of 
troughing over Baja California Sur. Seas are currently running 
between 4 and 7 ft. Northwest to north swell will propagate into 
the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 200 nm from early 
this afternoon through Tuesday evening, causing seas north of 25N
to build to between 6 and 9 ft. Surface troughing over the Baja 
Peninsula will maintain light to gentle winds over the Gulf of 
California through Monday night. Winds over the Gulf of 
California north of 29N will become moderate Tuesday through 
Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Convergence of light southwest flow into the monsoon trough and 
opposing drainage flow along coastal terrain of Central America 
will generate scattered to numerous mainly overnight showers and 
isolated thunderstorms primarily north of 04N along the 
coastline. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible in and 
near showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail generally north of 10N with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate 
south to southwest winds are expected south of 10N with 
corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft as cross-equatorial southwest 
swell augment combined seas. Seas will peak between 8 and 9 ft S 
of Costa Rica Wednesday night through Friday night as S to SW 
flow becomes fresh, then winds and seas will subside.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad surface high pressure anchored by a 1025 mb high centered 
north of the area near 37N133W ridges southeastward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge maintains moderate trade-wind 
flow across much of the region between 10N and 20N. The high 
pressure ridge will remain weak through Wednesday as low pressure
slowly crosses the eastern Pacific north of the area. This will 
cause winds both north and south of the ITCZ to become light to 
moderate. High pressure will gradually rebuild on Thursday and 
Friday and bring moderate to fresh trade winds to the area west 
of 125W and north of the ITCZ to 20N. Stronger high pressure will
remain in place through next weekend.

Southwest swell crossing the equator are currently supporting 
seas between 7 and 9 ft south of 04N between 98W and 121W. The 
swell will gradually decay, allowing seas in this area to slowly 
subside to less than 8 ft by the end of the week. 

$$
cam