000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050231 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0215 UTC Mon Jun 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave reaches from 07N99W to 16N100W, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the tropical wave axis. The tropical wave is poorly depicted at the surface, but does show some consistency in model guidance in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure near 08N75W to 10N86W to low pressure near 11N96W, then resumes from 09N102W to 09N114W to 08N127W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 08N127W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 270 nm SW of the axis between 81W and 87W, within 210 nm SW of a line from 07N93W to 09N106W, and also from 06N to 10N between 110W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Persistent ridging over the area will maintain gentle to moderate west to northwest winds through Friday night. Fresh to strong winds will occur near Los Cabos, mainly at night as the pressure gradient tightens west of troughing over Baja California Sur. Seas will remain between 4 and 7 ft through tonight. Northwest to north swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 200 nm starting early Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening, causing seas north of 25N to build to between 6 and 9 ft. Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California through Monday night. Winds north of 29N will become moderate Tuesday through Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergence of light southwest flow into the monsoon trough and opposing drainage flow along coastal terrain of Central America will generate scattered to numerous mainly overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily north of 04N along the coastline. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible in and near showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds will prevail generally north of 10N with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate south to southwest winds are expected south of 10N with corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft as cross-equatorial southwest swell augment combined seas, building up to 8 ft Wednesday night through Friday night as southerly flow freshens. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface high pressure anchored by a 1026 mb high centered north of the area near 38N133W extending southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands is maintaining moderate trade wind flow across much of the region between 10N and 20N. A negatively tilted upper trough moving through 125W-130W is enhancing convection along the monsoon trough. The high pressure ridge will remain weak through Wednesday as low pressure slowly crosses the eastern Pacific north of the area and allows winds both north and south of the ITCZ to become light to moderate. High pressure will gradually rebuild on Thursday and Friday and provide a surge of moderate to fresh trade winds west of 125W and north of the ITCZ to 20N. Southwest swell crossing the equator are currently supporting seas between 7 and 9 ft south of 04N between 98W and 121W. The swell will gradually decay, allowing seas in this area to subside to less than 8 ft. $$ LEWITSKY