000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1546 UTC Sun Jun 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave reaches from 07N97W to 13N98W, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered showers are evident from 05N to 10N between 
95W and 100W, in an area of upper level divergence. The tropical
wave is poorly depicted at the surface, but shows some 
consistency in model guidance at least in the lower to mid levels
of the atmosphere.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 1009 mb low
pressure near 10N86W, then resumes from 11N100W to 09N130W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between
115W and 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Persistent ridging over the area will maintain gentle to 
moderate west to northwest winds through Thursday night. Fresh to
strong winds will occur near Los Cabos, mainly at night as the 
pressure gradient tightens west of troughing over Baja California
Sur. Seas will remain between 4 and 7 ft today and tonight. 
Northwest to north swell will propagate into the waters off Baja 
California Norte beyond 200 nm starting early Monday afternoon 
through Tuesday evening, causing seas north of 25N to build to 
between 6 and 9 ft. Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula 
will maintain light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California 
through Monday night. Winds north of 29N will become moderate 
Tuesday through Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Convergence of light southwest flow into the monsoon trough and
opposing drainage flow along coastal terrain of Central America
will generate scattered to numerous mainly overnight showers and
isolated thunderstorms primarily north of 04N along the 
coastline. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible in and 
near showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail generally north of 10N with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate 
south to southwest winds are expected south of 10N with 
corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft as cross- equatorial southwest 
swell augment combined seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad surface high pressure anchored by a 1027 mb high centered 
northwest of the area near 37N140W extending southeast to the 
Revillagigedo Islands is maintaining moderate trade wind flow
across much of the region between 10N and 20N. A negatively
tilted upper trough moving through 130W is enhancing convection
along the monsoon trough from 07N to 11N between 115W and 125W. The
high pressure ridge will remain weak through Wednesday as low 
pressure slowly crosses the eastern Pacific north of the area and
allows winds both north and south of the ITCZ to become light to
moderate. High pressure will gradually rebuild on Thursday and 
Friday and provide a surge of moderate to fresh trade winds west 
of 125W and north of the ITCZ to 20N. Southwest swell crossing 
the equator are currently supporting seas between 7 and 8 ft 
south of 03N between 105W and 120W. The swell are decaying, 
which will allow seas in this area to subside below 8 ft by 
Monday evening. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN