000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 539 UTC Sun Jun 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has just passed south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The axis of the wave extends from 15N96W to 05N96W. The wave has moved west at 10 to 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The southern half of the wave is collocated with a region of upper-level divergence which supports scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 04N to 12N between 92W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N85W, then resumes near 14N100W to 09N116W. The ITCZ continues from 09N116W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present in the area bounded by 02N79W to 10N85W to 08N77W to 02N79W and from 06N to 11N between 118W and 124W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 10N between 111W and 118W and from 07N to 10N between 124W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Persistent ridging over the area will maintain gentle to moderate west to northwest winds through Thursday night. Fresh to strong winds will occur near Los Cabos, mainly at night as the pressure gradient tightens west of troughing over the Southern Baja Peninsula. Seas will remain between 4 and 7 ft today and tonight. Northwest to north swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 200 nm starting early Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening, causing seas N of 25N to build to between 6 and 9 ft. Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California through Monday night. Winds north of 29N will become moderate Tuesday through Thursday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergent low-level flow associated with the monsoon trough will continue to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily N of 04N. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible in and near showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds will prevail generally north of 10N with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate south to southwest winds are expected south of 10N with corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft as cross- equatorial southwest swell augment combined seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface high pressure anchored by a 1027 mb high centered NW of the area near 37N143W ridges SE to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are occurring between the ridge and the ITCZ, or between 9N and 20N W of 120W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are observed in the latest satellite-derived winds S of 07N between 108W and 131W. The high pressure ridge will weaken through Wednesday as low pressure slowly crosses the eastern Pacific north of the area and allows winds both N and S of the ITCZ to become light to moderate. High pressure will gradually rebuild on Thursday and Friday and provide a surge of moderate to fresh trade winds W of 125W and N of the ITCZ to 20N. Seas in this region will build around a foot in response. SW swell crossing the equator are currently supporting seas between 8 and 9 ft south of 03N between 104W and 121W. The swell are decaying, which will allow seas in this area to subside below 8 ft by Monday evening. Another round of SW swell could cause seas S of 00N between 100W and 120W to rebuild back above 8 ft on Thursday night or Friday. $$ cam