000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with axis extending from 15N94W to 04N94W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a region of middle level diffluence that supports scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of the wave axis S of 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 09N92W...then resumes west of a tropical wave near 10N97W and continue to 09N112W. The ITCZ begins near 09N92W and continues along 09N12W to 08N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate showers are noted from 04N to 10N between 80W and 92W...and within 120 NM either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Persistent ridging over the area will continue to support gentle to moderate west to northwest winds through next Thursday, with periodically fresh to strong winds off Los Cabos, mainly at night due to local effects. Seas will remain generally 4 to 7 ft through Sunday night. Northwest to north swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 200 nm starting early Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California through Monday night. Winds north of 29N will become moderate Tuesday through Thursday. Otherwise, little change in expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moist southerly flow associated with the monsoon trough will continue to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily N of 04N with possible locally strong gusty winds and rough seas. Light to gentle winds will prevail generally north of 10N with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate south to southwest winds are expected south of 10N with corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft as cross-equatorial southwest swell augment combined seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface high pressure anchored by a 1029 mb high NW of the area extends a ridge axis southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands, thus maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ axis to 20N W of 120W. Trade-wind convergence in this area is producing a few thunderstorms within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ with seas reaching 8 ft from 08N to 11N W of 138W. The ridge will continue weakening today as a dissipating cold front crosses the eastern Pacific north of the area. This will allow the aforementioned seas to subside and convection to gradually diminish late today. High pressure following in the wake of the front will provide a surge of moderate to fresh north winds and 5 to 7 ft seas into the region north of 23N between 120W and 130W Sunday and Monday, then the high will weaken and allow winds and seas to subside. Meanwhile, southwest swell crossing the equator currently maintaining seas between 5 and 7 ft as far north as 10N between 110W and 120W will gradually subside through mid week and allow seas in this area to subside to 4 to 6 ft. $$ RAMOS