000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1536 UTC Sat Jun 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 03N91W to 15N91W and is moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with weak troughing aloft. Isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 14N between 89W and 94W. A tropical wave extends from 06N98W to 16N98W and is moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with the base of a mid-level trough that stretches northward into the Western Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is found within 90 nm either side of a line from 04N97W to 09N101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N97W to 08N115W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 08N115W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate showers are noted from 07N to 09N between 135W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Persistent ridging over the area will continue to support gentle to moderate west to northwest winds through the middle of next week, with periodically fresh winds off Los Cabos, mainly at night. Seas will remain generally 4 to 7 ft through Sunday night. Northwest to north swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 200 nm from Monday morning through Tuesday night. Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California through Monday night. Winds north of 29N will become moderate Tuesday through Wednesday. Otherwise, little change in expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moist southerly flow associated with the monsoon trough will continue to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily N of 05N...mainly during the early mornings as monsoonal southwest winds converge with overnight drainage flow off the coast. Some of this activity could produce locally strong gusty winds and rough seas. Light to gentle winds will prevail generally north of 10N with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate south to southwest winds are expected south of 10N with corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft as cross-equatorial southwest swell augment combined seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extending from 32N135W southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands is maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ axis to 20N W of 125W. Trade-wind convergence in this area is producing a few thunderstorms just north of the ITCZ with seas reaching 8 ft from 08N to 11N W of 135W. The ridge will continue weakening today as a dissipating cold front crosses the eastern Pacific north of the area. This will allow the aforementioned seas to subside and convection to gradually diminish through late today. High pressure following in the wake of the front will provide a surge of moderate to fresh north winds and 5 to 7 ft seas into the region north of 23N between 120W and 130W Sunday and Monday, then the high will weaken and allow winds and seas to subside. Meanwhile, southwest swell crossing the equator currently maintaining seas between 5 and 7 ft as far north as 10N between 110W and 120W will gradually subside through mid week and allow seas in this area to subside to 4 to 6 ft. $$ CHRISTENSEN