000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021531 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1530 UTC Fri Jun 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The main axis of a tropical wave is located north of 02N along 86W northward into Nicaragua. This feature is mostly aloft in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere, and is poorly represented at the surface where recent ship observations scatterometer data indicated light, anticyclonic, southwest flow into the monsoon trough and the coast of Central America. There were a few showers and thunderstorms near this tropical wave earlier this morning, but this activity was most likely due to convergence of overnight drainage flow off the coast with the opposing light southwest flow. Model fields show this wave persisting in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere over the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 kt. Models also indicate the development of a weak accompanying surface trough or low pressure area, allow the monsoon trough axis to shift to the south of the coast. A second weak tropical wave is analyzed north of 03N along 96W, due south of the remnant low of Beatriz, moving west at 5 to 10 kt in an area of nearly calm southwest surface flow. Little shower activity is noted with this wave. Models indicate very subtle lower to mid level evidence of the wave over the next couple of days, but with little impact on sensible weather. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is displaced northward in the wake of Beatriz from the Caribbean coast of Panama to central Nicaragua. It resumes from 13N98W to 08N110W to 09N120W. A well defined ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of axis west of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Beatriz has been downgraded to a remnant low pressure center as it continues to move inland over the Mexican state of Oaxaca. Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing along the mountainous coast of western Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero, between Puerto Angel toward Acapulco. Please see local forecasts for more information on the lingering potential for heavy rainfall and landslides. Much of this convection appears to be weaken through the morning as the storm continues to diminish. Heavy surf is likely to persist along coast of Oaxaca through late this morning then diminish. Elsewhere, persistent ridging into the area will continue to support moderate to fresh northwest winds across the region, with winds briefly pulsing to strong off Los Cabos mainly tonight. Seas will remain generally 4 to 6 ft into Sunday. Northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 200 nm from late Sunday to Tuesday. Otherwise little change in expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moist southerly flow associated with the monsoon trough will continue to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily north of 05N, mainly during early mornings as the southwest flow converges with overnight drainage flow off the coast. Some of this activity could produce locally strong gusty winds and rough seas. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the trough axis along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate south to southwest winds are expected south of the trough axis with corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft due to a component of cross- equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Although a ridge extending from 30N140W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands has weakened somewhat since yesterday, it is still supporting fresh trade winds farther south into the deep tropics, from 08N to 13N west of 135W. Trade wind convergence in this area is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the ITCZ, and seas to 8 ft. The ridge will weaken further through late Saturday as a cold front moves across the eastern Pacific north of the area, allowing the aforementioned seas and convection to subside. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support a push of moderate to fresh northerly flow and 5 to 7 ft seas into the region north of 23N between 120W and 135W Sunday into Monday, before diminishing Tuesday. Meanwhile southerly, cross- equatorial swell of 5 to 7 ft reaching as far north as 10N between 110W and 120W will gradually subside through early next week. $$ CHRISTENSEN