000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 629 UTC Fri Jun 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beatriz has made landfall on the Pacific Coast of Mexico just to the SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. Beatriz is centered near 16.5N 96.3W at 02/0900 UTC or about 50 nm NNE of Puerto Angel Mexico moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Beatriz is weakening over land and is expected to dissipate over the mountains of SE Mexico during the next 24 hours. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is primarily present over water N of 15N between 95W and 99W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed farther S from 12N to 14N between 95W and 99W. Showers and thunderstorms associated with Beatriz are expected to decrease in areal coverage and intensity during the next 24 hours. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extending from 04N85W to 13N84W is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with weak mid-level troughing. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen within 45 nm either side of a line from 05N85W to 13N89W. Another tropical wave extends from 03N95W to 11N94W. This wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave also coincides with weak mid- level troughing. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 13N100W to 08N113W. The ITCZ axis continues from 08N113W to 08N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 132W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging extending SE from 1023 mb high pressure centered near 32N138W to near the Revillagigedo Islands is generating moderate NW winds along the Pacific Coast of the Baja California peninsula. These winds have been increasing during the overnight hours and could again pulse to fresh levels Friday night. The ridging will be weakened Saturday through Sunday as a surface trough arriving from the NW crosses Baja California Norte and the adjacent offshore waters. This will cause winds to diminish starting Friday through Tuesday night. Looking ahead...NW swell generated by strong winds W of California will cause seas to build above 8 ft near Guadalupe Island by late Monday. The swell will propagate SE through the waters W of Baja California Norte as far S as 26N through Tuesday night before the finally decay. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW to W gap winds could briefly affect the northern Gulf of California in the wake of the trough Saturday. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf. Farther south...winds and seas on the periphery of Tropical Storm Beatriz that are impacting the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and parts of the coast of western Oaxaca are rapidly subsiding as Beatriz heads farther inland toward the NNE and dissipates. Hazardous surf will persist today. Heavy rainfall over the States of Guerrero and Oaxaca will likely persist at least through early Fri. Please see local forecasts for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moist southerly flow associated with the Monsoon Trough will continue to fuel scattered showers and isolated tstms primarily N of 05N. Some of this activity could produce strong gusty winds and rough seas. Light to gentle winds will prevail N of the trough axis along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the trough axis with corresponding seas of 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends SE from 32N138E to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Low-level convergence between the ridge and the ITCZ is causing scattered showers and and a few tstms N of the ITCZ and S of 11N. Seas of 7 to 8 ft are observed W of a line from 09N126W to 19N140W. A weak cold front will approach 30N140W Friday...but then will stall and dissipate by Saturday evening while producing few sensible weather impacts. Long period SW swell will cause seas S of the Equator and W of 100W to remain at 8 ft or above through Monday, then seas will subside. Otherwise, little change is expected during the next several days. $$ cam