000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2059 UTC Thu Jun 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beatriz is centered near 15.5N 96.8W at 01/2100 UTC or about 20 nm SW of Puerto Angel Mexico moving NNE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 12N between 93W and 99W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 03N83W to 09N83W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle troughing aloft between 80W and 85W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 80W and 86W. Tropical wave extends from 03N83W to 11N93W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides within subtle mid-level troughing between 90W and 95W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 88W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 13N101W to 09N110W to 09N120W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 98W and 103W...and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ axis W of 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong ridging into the area is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds along parts of the Baja California peninsula. A recent ASCAT pass indicated fresh winds offshore of Los Cabos. These winds are pulsing in nature and may reoccur overnight tonight...and pulse to fresh levels Friday night. The ridging... extending from near 30N148W to the Revillagigedo Islands...will weaken through Sunday as a surface trough moves into the region from the N...crossing Baja California Norte and the adjacent offshore waters. This will allow winds to diminish starting Friday through the remainder of the period. Looking ahead...NW swell of 8 to 9 ft will reach Guadalupe Island by late Monday... and propagate through waters beyond 200 nm off Baja California Norte. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW to W gap winds may briefly occur across the northern Gulf of California in the wake of the trough Saturday...but otherwise gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf. Farther south...strong winds and seas to 11 ft on the periphery of Tropical Storm Beatriz impacting the Gulf of Tehuantepec and parts of the coast of western Oaxaca will subside through the overnight hours as the center of Beatriz moves inland. Hazardous surf will persist through tonight...and heavy rainfall along the coast and across inland areas will likely persist at least through early Fri. Please see local forecasts for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moist southerly flow associated with the Monsoon Trough will continue to support scattered showers and tstms mainly N of 04N. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and produce rough seas. Light to gentle winds will prevail N of the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from near 30N147W NE of Hawaii to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Although a surface trough is embedded in the ridge from off the southern coast of California to 28N135W... the ridge is strong enough to support moderate to fresh trade wind flow along the ITCZ south of 15N and west of 120W...which as a result is supporting scattered showers and tstms along the ITCZ...and seas 7 to 8 ft from 08N to 11N W of 134W. A weak front will move into the area S of 30N E of 140W Friday...but then will stall and dissipate through Saturday with little impact on sensible weather. Little change is expected over the next several days. $$ HUFFMAN