000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1438 UTC Thu Jun 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Two-E is centered 15.4N 97.1W at 01/1500 UTC or about 40 nm SW of Puerto Angel Mexico moving NNE at 5 kt, and is expected to make landfall later today along the coast of western Oaxaca. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of a line from 15.5N95W to 10N99W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC and Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 05N along 92W moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle troughing between 88W and 92W. However any leftover energy from this wave will likely be absorbed by Tropical Depression Two-E to the west within 24 hours. Another tropical wave extends north of 05N along 82W moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad mid level troughing between 75W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 05N between 81W and 84W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N102W to 09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong ridging into the area is supporting locally strong northwest winds along parts of the Baja California peninsula. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated fresh to strong winds off Los Cabos, and a ship reported 20 to 25 kt off Punta Eugenia. These winds are pulsing in nature, and may reoccur overnight. The ridging, extending from the north central Atlantic to the Revillagigedo Islands, will weaken through Sunday as surface trough moves into the region from the north, crossing Baja California Norte and adjacent offshore waters. This will allow winds to diminish starting Friday through the remainder of the period. Looking ahead, Northwest swell of 8 to 9 ft will reach Guadalupe Island by late Monday, and propagate through waters beyond 200 nm off Baja California Norte. Moderate to occasionally fresh southwest to west gap winds may briefly occur over the northern Gulf of California in the wake of the trough Saturday, but otherwise gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf. Farther south, strong winds and seas to 13 ft on the periphery of the the T.D. Two-E impacting the Gulf of Tehuantepec and parts of the coast of western Oaxaca will subside through tonight as the center of the depression moves inland. Hazardous surf will persist through late today, and heavy rainfall along the coast and over inland areas will likely persist at least into tonight. Please see local forecasts for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moist southerly flow associated with the monsoon trough will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of 04N. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and produce rough seas. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure northeast of Hawaii near 28N151W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Although a surface trough is embedded in the ridge from off the central coast of California to 27N140W, the ridge is strong enough to support moderate to fresh trade wind flow along the ITCZ, south of 15N and west of 120W, which in turn is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ, and seas 7 to 8 ft from 07N to 12N west of 130W. A weak front will move into the area south of 30N and east of 140W Friday, but then will stall and dissipate through Saturday with little impact on sensible weather. Little change is expected over the next several days. $$ CHRISTENSEN