000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311614 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The broad area of low pressure south-southeast of Acapulco Mexico has gain sufficient organization this morning to be classified as Tropical Depression Two-E, and is centered near 13.9N97.8W at 1500 UTC, with an estimated pressure of 1007 mb. Scatterometer data overnight showed and elongated area of 25 kt winds displaced northeast of the center and dammed along the Guerrero and Oaxaca state coasts of southern Mexico. Convection with the broad circulation of the depression has increased this morning, with scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection occurring from 11N TO 16N between 94W AND 102W. The depression is expected to gradually become better organized through this evening as it drifts NNE and reaches tropical storm strength. Abundant deep layer moisture associated with the depression is expected to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across all but west portions of the circulation, and may become frequent across the near shore coastal waters and coastal zones from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to most of coastal Guerrero during the next 2-3 days. Locally heavy rain may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Additionally, increasing onshore winds east and northeast of the center will produce large seas that are likely to batter the coastlines during the next few days, leading to coastal erosion and the potential for coastal flooding. This system is expected to drift slowly northward and may linger along the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero into the upcoming weekend. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 05N TO 12.5N between 86W AND 89W.. The wave is expected to help increase shower and thunderstorm activity over the waters along and ahead of the wave as it continues to move westward and interacts with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres near 11N76W TO 09N81W TO T.D. TWO-E near 13.9N97.8W TO 09N116W. The ITCZ continues from 09N116W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection associated with T.D. TWO-E is occurring from 03N TO 08N between 75W and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 05N TO 12.5N between 86W AND 89W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is found within 90 nm either side of axis between 103W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh northwest winds will persist west of the Baja Peninsula through Friday. Stronger northwest winds off the coast of southern California will enhance northerly swell that will spread south, and create seas to 8 ft north of 28N between 119W and 123W through this evening, then decay to 6-7 ft by Thursday afternoon. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected over the Gulf of California today. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are expected, except 3 to 4 ft over the entrance to the Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas will continue south of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moist southerly flow associated with the monsoon trough will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of 04N. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and produce rough seas. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. Mainly moderate south to southwest winds are expected south of the trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure covers the area north of 15N and west of about 115W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure associated with the convergence zone is supporting fresh northeast trades from 07N to 15N west of 125W, with seas of 7 to 8 ft in mixed northeast and southeast swell. This area will gradually shrink through Thursday as the ridge retreats westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds will continue over the remainder of the forecast waters through today with 5-6 ft seas. $$ Stripling