000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290233 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave axis previously along 97W from 08N to 15N has merged with the wave to its west described below as a broad area of low pressure forms south of Mexico. A tropical wave axis is along 100W from 07N to 16N with a 1010 mb low pressure along the axis near 13N100W. It is located within a broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. The broad low area is moving in a northwest to north slow motion. Model guidance depicts that a more definitive area of low pressure may form with this system through Wednesday. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 to 90 nm either side of the axis from 07N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from NW Colombia to 11N86W to 12N94W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 13N100W to 12N108W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 08N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 85W and 88W, and within 180 nm south of the axis between 103W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 106W and 109W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh northwest winds prevail west of Baja California between high pressure to the west and lower pressures associated with troughing over Baja California and mainland Mexico. The high will meander west of the region through the middle of this upcoming week. By Tuesday night, stronger winds north of the area will support 8 to 9 ft northwest swell that will propagate over the waters west of Baja California Norte by Wednesday. Over the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected to prevail with perhaps fresh to strong winds developing over the northern Gulf of California Wednesday night as low pressure develops north of the region. Broad low pressure a few hundred miles south of central Mexico is forecast by the NWP models to possibly develop some through Wednesday as it slowly moves in a northwest to north motion. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue along and south of the coast of Mexico south of 16N the next few days. Localized flooding and heavy rainfall will be possible in these coastal sections as a result. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected over the Mexico offshore waters south of Baja California through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Monsoon Trough will continue to intersect the region from west to east the next several days, supporting convection mainly north of 03N. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. South of the trough axis, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak high pressure ridge will meander over northwest and north/central waters from near 32N132W to near 22N115W through early next week, hen shift westward into the Central Pacific. Gentle to moderate winds are expected over northern waters with 5 to 7 ft seas. The only exception will be fresh northwest winds forecast to develop north of 29N and east of 125W by Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to low pressure developing inland over the SW United States. These winds will support 8 ft seas over that area. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail in southern waters north of the ITCZ, with 6 to 7 ft seas building slightly to 7 to 8 ft Tuesday as northeast trades strengthen to 20 kt mainly from 07N to 15N west of 130W. Seas are expected to linger up to 8 ft west of 135W by Wednesday. $$ Aguirre