000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282200
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 97W from 08N to 15N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. This wave has a rather good track
history as it progresses across the eastern Pacific waters.
This wave is becoming embedded within the eastern portion 
of the broad area of low pressure taking shape to the east of 
the tropical wave to its west described below currently along 
99W/100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 
nm east of the axis from 12N to 15N. This wave is forecast to 
merge with the wave along 99W/100W within the next 12 to 24 
hours.

A tropical wave axis extends from 08N100W to low pressure 
near 13N100W 1010 mb to near 16N99W, moving westward at
5 to 10 kt. This wave is becoming absorbed by a broad area of 
low pressure developing just to its east as evident in latest
satellite imagery and in the Global models. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the axis from
08N to 12N, and also to the southeast of the axis within 45 nm 
of 07N99W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough extends from low pressure over northern 
Colombia near 10N74W to 09N79W to 10N88W to 12N95W to low 
pressure of 1010 mb near 12N112W to 09N121W. The ITCZ continues 
from 09N121W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 84W and 88W, and 
within 180 nm south of the axis between 102W and 105W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh northwest winds prevail west of Baja California
between high pressure to the west and lower pressures associated
with troughing over Baja California and mainland Mexico. The 
high will meander west of the region through the middle of this 
week. By Tuesday night, stronger winds north of the area will 
support 8 to 9 ft swell that will propagate over the waters west 
of Baja California Norte for the middle to late week time period.

Over the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate winds are
expected to prevail with perhaps fresh to strong winds developing
over the northern Gulf of California Wednesday night as low
pressure develops north of the region. 

A pair of tropical waves discussed in the tropical waves 
section, and a broad area of low pressure, will all merge into 
the low over the next couple of days. Numerous showers and 
thunderstorms will continue along and south of the coast of 
Mexico south of 16N the next few days. Localized flooding and 
heavy rainfall will be possible in these coastal sections as a 
result. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 
to 6 ft are expected over the Mexico offshore waters south of 
Baja California through the middle of next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The Monsoon Trough will continue to intersect the region from 
west to east the next several days, supporting convection mainly 
north of 03N. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. South of the trough axis, 
moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high pressure ridge will meander over northwest and
north/central waters from near 32N132W to 22N115W through early 
next week, hen shift westward into the Central Pacific. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected over northern waters with 5 to 7 ft 
seas. The only exception will be fresh northwest winds forecast 
to develop north of 29N and east of 125W by Tuesday as the 
pressure gradient tightens in response to low pressure developing
inland over the SW United States. These winds will support 8 ft 
seas over that area.

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail in 
southern waters north of the ITCZ, with 6 to 7 ft seas 
building slightly to 7 to 8 ft Tuesday as northeast trades 
strengthen to 20 kt mainly from 06N to 15N west of 130W. Seas
are expected to linger up to 8 ft west of 130W Wednesday through
Thursday night.

$$
Aguirre