000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261529 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1529 UTC Fri May 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis N of 05N along 81W, moving westward at around 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave has been tracked with convection over south America the past few days. Scattered moderate to strong convection are north of 02N and east of the wave axis. A tropical wave has an axis north of 06N along 92W, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is at the leading edge of a surge of low to mid level moisture which is helping to support numerous moderate to strong convection from 05N to 14N between 85W and 91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N82W to 11N91W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 12N94W to 13N97W to 10N113W to 08N130W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Other than convection associated with the two tropical waves discussed above, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis between 102W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1005 mb low is centered over the northern Gulf of California near 31N114W with a surface trough axis that extends from Arizona, through the low, and across the southern Baja California. The pressure gradient between this low and higher pressure near Guadalajara is producing strong west to southwest winds south of the low to 30N over the northern Gulf of California. These winds are likely supporting seas to 8 ft over this area. The winds are expected to continue through early Saturday before the low weakens and winds diminish. The pressure gradient between the trough over Baja California and higher pressures northwest of the region will support fresh northwest winds within about 90 nm of the west coast of Baja California through early next week. Occasionally strong winds will be possible very near the coast in the afternoons. Otherwise, mainly moderate northwest winds are expected west of Baja California. Elsewhere, A tropical wave moving south of southern Mexico will support numerous showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are occurring over the offshore waters of Mexico south of the Baja California with seas of 4 to 6 ft. These winds and seas are expected to prevail for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will intersect the region from west to east through the next several days, supporting convection mainly north of around 03N. North of the trough axis mainly light to gentle winds will prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. To the south of the trough axis moderate to fresh south to southwest winds can be expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A storm system northeast of the discussion area has been causing a weak pressure pattern over the northern waters north of 20N and west of the Mexico offshore waters. This is resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds over these waters with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds to the south of 20N are a little stronger, with moderate to locally fresh northeast winds from the ITCZ/monsoon trough axis to 20N, and moderate and southerly winds to the south of these axes. A weak ridge is forecast to build over the northwestern waters near 30N133W over the weekend and meander over the area into early next week which will continue to support gentle to moderate winds over the northern waters west of the Mexico offshore waters. As this ridge develops, winds over the waters south of 20N and north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough will increase slightly resulting in combined seas nearing 8 ft over these waters by early next week. $$ Latto