000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220942 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon May 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough begins over Colombia near 10N75W and extends across Panama and Costa Rica to 09N85W to low pressure near 12N97.5W 1009 MB to 06N109W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N110W TO 07.5N118W TO 06.5N133W TO beyond 06N140W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 85W and 102W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 111W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge across the waters W of the region will maintain a modest pressure gradient across the area waters through the middle of the week. This will maintain moderate NW breezes west of Baja California through Wed, with afternoon and evening sea breezes freshening winds near the coast. Combined seas of 3 to 5 ft will prevail N of 20N in mixed S and NW swell. The pressure gradient will begin tighten somewhat on by Thursday, with fresh NW flow expected to develop across the waters N of 25N within 120 nm of the Baja Peninsula Thu through Fri night, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gulf of California: Mainly light and variable winds are expected through Wed, with afternoon and evening sea breezes dominating. Seas of 1-3 ft are expected to persist except 4-5 ft in S swell across the far southern waters. Global models indicate low pressure developing across the SW U.S. Thu and shifting SE into Texas that is expected to produce fresh W to SW winds across the N half of the gulf. Mexican waters SE of Cabo Corrientes to the Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak 1009 mb low pressure center has developed SSE of Acapulco near 12N97.5W as suggested by recent model guidance. Active convection will continue around this broad circulation and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough, between Papagayo and 105W through Tuesday. The low will drift W and dissipate by Wed night. Expect moderate cyclonic flow and seas of 6-8 ft in SW swell near the low through Tue, while moderate NW winds and seas 5-6 ft continue across the waters near Cabo Corrientes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Expect light to moderate mainly SE flow N of 09N with seas 5-6 ft in SW swell. Winds will diminish late Tue into Wed as the low shifts W and dissipates. Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of 09N through Thu, with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft in long period S swell subsiding to 4- 6 ft by Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will meander from near 32N140W to near 15N107W through middle of the week. Moderate anticyclonic flow, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft, is expected through Wed. A weak trough will sweep eastward across the waters north of 30N Tuesday and Wednesday, accompanied by long period NW swell that will build seas to 6-8 ft along 32N between 120W and 135W. Cross equatorial southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, currently across the tropics elsewhere S of 10N e of 108W will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by Tue night. $$ Stripling