000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220222 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough begins over Colombia near 08N75W, extends across Panama and Costa Rica to 12N94W, then dips west-southwest to 07N119W, where the ITCZ continues west-southwest to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 93W and 101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient will maintain moderate NW breezes west of Baja California through early Tuesday, with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed S and NW swell. The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat on Tuesday, with fresh nw flow forecast across the waters n of 25N within 90 nm of the Baja Peninsula through Thursday night, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gulf of California: Mainly light and variable winds are expected through Thursday, with seas of 1-3 ft. Model guidance suggests a fresh to locally strong SW breeze along 30N Thursday night. Mexican waters south of 16N including the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance has come into better agreement, which indicates that a weak surface low will develop along the monsoon trough near 11N95W, then drift westward and gradually dissipate through Wednesday night. Expect moderate cyclonic flow and 4-7 ft seas through early Wednesday, with winds diminishing Wednesday and Thursday as the low degenerates into a N-S orientated trough. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Expect light and variable flow north of 09N to gradually become a moderate SE to S breeze east of the surface low expected to develop near 11N95W, with seas building 4-6 ft. Winds diminish on Tuesday with light and variable flow expected Wednesday and Thursday and seas of 3 to 6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are expected S of 09N through Thursday night, with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft in long period S swell subsiding to 4-6 ft by Monday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will meander from near 32N140W to near 13N102W through middle of the week. Moderate anticyclonic flow, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft, is expected through late Mon. A weak trough will sweep eastward across the waters north of 30N Tuesday and Wednesday, accompanied by long period NW swell that will build seas to 6-8 ft along 32N between 120W and 135W. Cross equatorial southerly swell, in the form of 6 to 8 ft seas, currently across the tropics elsewhere s of 10N e of 108W will gradually subside to less than 8 ft tonight. $$ Mundell