000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212131
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough begins over Colombia near 08N74W, extends 
across Panama and Costa Rica to 11W85W, then continues westward 
to 11N96W, then dips west-southwest to 07N120W, where the ITCZ 
continues west-southwest to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 91W 
and 100W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient will maintain moderate NW breezes west 
of Baja California through early Tuesday, with combined seas of 
3 to 5 ft in mixed S and NW swell. The pressure gradient will 
tighten somewhat on Tuesday, with fresh nw flow forecast across 
the waters n of 25N within 90 nm of the Baja Peninsula through 
Thu night, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Gulf of California: Mainly light and variable winds are expected 
through Thursday, with seas of 1-3 ft. Model guidance suggests a 
fresh to locally strong SW breeze along 30N Thursday night.

Mexican waters south of 16N including the Gulf of Tehuantepec: 
Model guidance has come into better agreement, which indicates 
that a weak surface low will develop along the monsoon trough 
near 11N95W, then drift westward and gradually dissipate through 
Wednesday night. Expect moderate cyclonic flow and 4-7 ft seas 
through early Wednesday, with winds diminishing Wednesday and 
Thursday as the low degenerates into a N-S orientated trough.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Expect light and variable flow north of 09N to gradually become 
a moderate SE to S breeze east of the surface low expected to 
develop near 11N95W, with seas building 4-6 ft. Winds diminish 
on Tuesday with light and variable flow expected Wednesday and 
Thursday and seas of 3 to 6 ft. 

Moderate southerly winds are expected S of 09N through Thursday 
night, with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft in long period S swell 
subsiding to 4-6 ft by Monday night.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A ridge will meander from near 32N140W to near 13N102W through 
middle of the week. Moderate anticyclonic flow, with combined 
seas of 4 to 6 ft, is expected through late Mon. A weak trough 
will sweep eastward across the waters north of 30N Tuesday and 
Wednesday, accompanied by long period NW swell that will build 
seas to 6-8 ft along 32N between 120W and 135W. 

Cross equatorial southerly swell, in the form of 6 to 8 ft seas, 
currently across the tropics elsewhere s of 10N e of 108W will 
gradually subside to less than 8 ft tonight.

$$
Mundell