000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201552
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough begins at a 1007 mb surface low over the 
Caribbean Coast of Colombia at 10N76W, and extends w across the 
border of Panama and Costa Rica to 09N80W, then turns nw through 
11N96W, then turns sw to 07N123W where scatterometer winds 
indicate that the ITCZ forms and continues sw to beyond 04N140W. 

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N 
to the 80W in association with a low to mid level cyclone at 
06.5N78W. 

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and 
to the s of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis within 180 nm 
either side of a line from 06N81W to 11N95W to 07N122W.
  
...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the EPAC just beyond 250 nm of the coast 
with the associated pressure gradient supporting a moderate 
northwest breeze off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula 
through early Tue with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in nw swell. 

Gulf of California: Moderate nw flow expected through this 
evening, becoming light and variable winds early Sun, followed 
by sw flow on Sun night, then light and variable winds again on 
Mon and Tue.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds expected through 
the middle of next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

To the n of 07N expect light and variable flow through the 
middle of next week, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft primarily 
in sw swell. Moderate southerly flow expected through the middle 
of next week, with combined seas of 6 to 9 ft primarily due to 
long period s swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A ridge will meander from near 32N140W to near 12N104W through 
middle of next week. Moderate anticyclonic flow, with combined 
seas of 4 to 6 ft, is expected through late Mon when a weak 
trough will sweep e across the waters n of 30N briefly 
interrupting the flow. Cross equatorial southerly swell, in the 
form of 6 to 8 ft seas, across the tropics elsewhere s of 10N e 
of 110W will gradually subside to less than 8 ft on Sun Night.

$$
Nelson