000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200932
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W TO 10.5N95W TO 07.5N122W, 
then the ITCZ continues ON to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted within 150 nm SW of the coastline 
between 78W and 93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 11.5N between 92W and 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure remains well offshore of California near 40N136W, 
but is weakening and leading to a weakening pressure gradient 
across the regional waters. This scenario will support gentle to 
moderate NW winds west of Baja California through the weekend, 
with enhanced winds during the late afternoon and evenings. Seas 
area expected to remain in the 4 to 6 ft range in mainly NW 
swell. 

Gulf of California: Moderate NW flow is expected through early 
Sunday across the northern and central gulf, before winds become 
light to gentle across the entire gulf Sun and lead to strong 
afternoon and evening seabreezes through Monday. Seas to remain 
4 ft or less, except 4-5 ft across the entrance and waters 
between Cabo San Lucas and Las Tres Marias.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to W winds will prevail between 
Cabo Corrientes and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with light onshore 
southerly flow expected to dominate during the daylight 
hours across the Tehuantepec region through the weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh SW to W monsoonal flow will prevail 
across the offshore waters S of 10N through the weekend, with 
winds slightly weaker across the near shore waters. Gentle S to 
SE winds are expected elsewhere through late tonight, except 
offshore across the waters of Nicaragua. Winds N of 10N will 
freshen slightly and veer E to SE Sun and Mon in response to 
broad and weak low pressure developing along the monsoon trough 
to the SSW of Tehuantepec. Strong southern hemispheric SSW swell 
is dominating area waters extending beyond the equator early 
this morning, and will produce seas of 5 to 7 ft for the next 
several days, increasing to 6-9 ft offshore of Costa Rica and 
Panama this afternoon through Sun morning. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A benign and weakening ridge will meander from near 30N140W to 
near 15N120W through the weekend. Fresh NE to N winds and seas 
of 5 to 7 ft are expected north of 26N and W of 120W through 
Sunday, becoming moderate with 4 to 7 ft seas Monday. Moderate N 
to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are expected elsewhere north of 
the ITCZ through the weekend.

$$
Stripling