000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough is ill-defined. It extends from a weak 1010 mb low near 12N101W southwest to 06N106W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N106W to 05N124W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the axis between 121W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the axis between 129W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong northwest winds are present off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere off the coast of southwest Mexico. Winds are light and gentle over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, 4 to 6 ft over the remainder of the offshore waters off southwest Mexico, and 1 to 2 ft over the Gulf of California. A fresh set of northwesterly winds will produce seas to 9 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte beginning this evening, with seas to 10 ft along and north of 30N. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest winds are over the offshore zones off the coast of Ecuador while light to gentle southwest to west winds prevail elsewhere. Seas over the offshore waters off the coast of Ecuador are in the 6 to 8 ft range in southwesterly swell while seas in the 4 to 6 ft range prevails elsewhere. Little change is expected through Friday. Rather dry and stable conditions continue across these waters, with the exception of the waters offshore Honduras and southward from there where moisture has increased over the past 24 to 48 hours. With upper level diffluent flow in place here, sporadic clusters of showers and thunderstorms that developed during the overnight and early morning hours are remaining in place over this portion of the area. This activity is expected to remain active through Thursday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb centered to the northwest of the area near 34N141W extends a ridge southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh trades prevail between the ridge and ITCZ west of 120W. Seas in the trade-wind belt are mainly in the 7 to 9 ft range in mixed northeast and northwest swell. The Trades are expected to diminish to mostly the moderate range on Friday, with the 7 to 9 ft seas subsiding to 6 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail east of 120W over remainder of the area. Water vapor imagery shows abundant subsidence over much of the area keeping atmospheric moisture to a very minimum. Outside convection associated with the ITCZ as described above, only isolated showers are possible over remainder of the area waters. $$ Aguirre