000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162118
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure area near 
12N101W to 06N108W, where the ITCZ axis continues to 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with the low 
is within 60 nm of 12N102W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 30 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 110W and 123W.
Scattered moderate convection an upper diffluent flow pattern is 
within 60 nm either side of a line from 05N85W to 06N94W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong NW winds off the coast of southern California is 
supporting sea heights to 8-9 ft in northern waters west of Baja 
California. Strong high pressure in the NE Pacific near 34N145W 
will shift eastward the next couple of days, which will tighten 
the pressure gradient near the northern part of Baja California 
to increase winds and seas west of the peninsula. Moderate to 
fresh NW winds in the Gulf of California will become light by 
Wednesday night along a trough axis situated near the Sonoran 
coast. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, and little 
change is expected through Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the area, except 
gentle to moderate winds west of Ecuador, with seas in the 3 to 
6 ft range. Long period cross-equatorial southwesterly swell 
will Central American forecast waters later this week, and build 
seas to 8 ft off the coast of Ecuador Friday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure centered near 34N145W extends a ridge 
southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to 
fresh trades prevail between the ridge and ITCZ west of 120W. 
Seas in the trade-wind belt are mainly 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to 
fresh winds will prevail through Friday as seas slowly subside.

$$
Mundell