000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near
12N100W to 06N108W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N108W to 
06N118W to 05N128W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 120 nm north of the axis between 125W and 
130W, within 60 nm north of the axis between 133W and 137W, and 
also within 30 nm of the axis between 110W and 115W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed across
the far southern portion of the southeastern portion of the area
to the west of southern Colombia and northern Ecuador within 60 
nm of a line from 03N79W to 04N83W to 05N89W. This activity 
remains under an upper diffluent flow pattern, and is expected to
change little through Wednesday.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The strong to near gale force winds southwest to west winds
earlier noted over the far northern Gulf of California have 
diminished to strong winds this morning. These winds will
become southeast to south gentle to moderate winds this 
afternoon, and continue through Wednesday before becoming fresh 
to strong southwest to west from 30N to 30.5N west of 114W 
Wednesday night, with moderate to fresh southwest winds elsewhere
over the northern portion of the Gulf as well as over the 
central section of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds over the 
southern portion of the Gulf will change little through 
Wednesday, then become mainly gentle winds on Thursday.

Moderate to fresh winds prevail off the coast of Baja California
with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in 
the 7 to 8 ft range off the coast of Baja California Norte, 6 to 7
ft off the coast of Baja California Sur, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere 
over the open waters off the southwest coast of Mexico, and 
1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Northwesterly swell will 
briefly subside below 8 ft Wednesday off the coast of Baja 
California Norte before another set of northerly swell propagates
into the area increasing seas to 8 ft or greater Thursday and 
Friday. Winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria 
elsewhere. 

Weak low pressure of 1010 mb is located near 12N100W, with
associated scattered moderate convection within 30 nm of a 
line from 11N104W to 12N102W to 12N101W. The low is expected to 
move little through Wednesday then dissipate Wednesday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters west of
Ecuador. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the
3 to 6 ft range. Long period cross-equatorial southwesterly 
swell will propagate into the southern forecast waters later this
week. Seas to build to near 8 ft off the coast of Ecuador Friday
in southwest swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1032 mb centered to the northwest of the 
forecast area near 34N145W extends a ridge southeastward to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh trades prevail 
between the ridge and ITCZ to the west of 120W. Seas in the 
trade-wind belt are in the general range of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate 
to fresh winds will prevail through the week while seas slowly 
subside.

$$
Aguirre