000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152131
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2026 UTC Mon May 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N84W to 14N91W to 
14N98W to 06N106W to 06N120W. The ITCZ continues from 06N120W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 10.5N to 14N between 95W and 102W. Scattered 
moderate convection is found within 60 nm either side of a line 
from 08N129W to 06N140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A tight pressure gradient between strong 1035 mb high 
pressure centered W of California near 36N145W and a low pressure
trough over interior Mexico is generating fresh to strong winds 
over the Gulf of California N of 29N. Seas in this area range 
between 4 and 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the 
remainder of the gulf along with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh 
NW winds and seas to 8 ft are occurring off the coast of Baja 
California Norte north of 28N as NW swell generated by strong to 
gale force winds along the California coast propagate SE into the
forecast waters. The remaining forecast waters are experiencing 
gentle to moderate N to NW winds and seas in the 4-7 ft range. 
Winds will remain between 20-25 kt over the far northern Gulf of 
California this evening, then pulse to near gale force tonight.
Seas during this time frame are expected to peak at 7 ft. Seas 
will subside below 8 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte by
Tuesday night. A fresh round of NW swell will propagate into 
these waters Wednesday night through Thursday night. Seas N of 
27N are expected to build once again to above 8 ft. Winds along 
the Pacific Coast of Baja N of 29N could become strong Wednesday 
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail through Friday night. Seas in
the 3-5 ft range currently prevail. Southwest swell from the 
Southern Hemisphere will propagate into the forecast waters of 
Ecuador and Colombia Wednesday morning through the end of the 
week, causing seas to build into the 5-8 ft range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure measuring 1035 mb is centered NW of the forecast 
area near 36N145W. A ridge extends SE from the high to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands at 18N113W. Moderate to fresh trades 
prevail south of the ridge and north of the ITCZ and west of 
120W, with seas generally ranging from 6 to 8 ft. W of 134W
between 25N and 30N NE and NW swell will mix to bring combined 
seas to just above 8 ft. W of 134W from 07N to 25N NE swell will
mix with NE wind waves to cause combined seas to rise to just
above 8 ft. Tuesday night through Wednesday night SW swell from
the Southern Hemisphere will be added to the existing mix of
swell and cause seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft from 07N to 
10N between 120W and 130W. Elsewhere, seas will remain in the 6 
to 8 ft range through Thursday in moderate to occasionally fresh
trade-wind flow.

$$
cam