000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112158
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2158 UTC Thu May 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W then from 
10N98W to 08N104W to 07N117W. ITCZ extends from 07N117W to 
06N121W to 06N127W to 04N133W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 80W and 
85W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02N to 15N 
E of 107W...and from 03N to 07N between 133W and 139W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The remnant low of Adrian will drift WNW S of southern Mexico 
through Saturday night. Intermittent bursts of convection are 
possible near the low-level circulation center the next couple 
of days.

Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the northern Gulf of 
California with slightly stronger moderate to fresh NW winds
occurring across the southern Gulf of California. Winds are
expected to become light and variable by Saturday with seas
generally ranging from 1-3 ft.

A weak pressure pattern W of Northern Baja California supports 
gentle to moderate NW winds N of 27N. A ridge axis extends from
NW of the discussion area near 35N145W to 30N125W then SW to near
16N111W and supports moderate to occasional fresh NW winds 
offshore of southern Baja California. High pressure will
gradually build SE toward the area Friday as a weakening cold 
front approaches from the W. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and low pressure across interior portions of the SW US 
will support fresh to strong N to NW winds off northern Baja 
California late Friday through Sunday. Seas will build into a
range of 8 to 13 ft during that time...highest along 30N. NW 
swell to 8 ft will propagate as far S as 22N across the offshore
waters of southern Baja California this weekend. Conditions are
expected to improve early next week. Elsewhere between Baja 
California and the remnant low of Adrian...mainly gentle to 
moderate NW winds will prevail through Tuesday night with seas
ranging from 5-7 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail during the 
daytime hours...with gentle to moderate offshore winds during 
the overnight hours during the next several days. Combined seas 
of 4-7 ft will also influence the waters through the upcoming 
weekend and early next week. The monsoon trough across the 
offshore waters will provide focus for scattered areas of 
convection through the forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front extends across the NW portion of the discussion 
area from 30N131W to 27N140W. The front will continue on a
weakening trend and eventually dissipate on Friday. As the front
dissipates...strong high pressure N of the region will begin to 
strengthen the pressure gradient across the waters between the 
equatorial trough and 30N...resulting in fresh to strong NE winds
N of 20N with seas building to 8 to 10 ft. These winds and seas 
will prevail during the upcoming weekend.

$$
HUFFMAN