000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111511
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1359 UTC Thu May 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends across central America near 09N78W to
10N88W, then resumes west of Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian near
10N100W to 06N110W to 06N120W. The ITCZ begins near 06N120W and
extends to 06N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection are from 03N to 10N between 77W and 100W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 100W and 108W, and
from 03N to 09N between 128W and 139W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian will drift WNW 
south of southern Mexico through Sunday. Intermittent bursts of 
convection are possible near this system's center the next couple
of days.

Light winds are over the northern Gulf of California, and
moderate to fresh northwest winds cover the southern Gulf of
California. Winds over the southern Gulf will decrease over the
next 24 hours.  

A weak pressure pattern west of Northern Baja California 
supports light to gentle winds north of 28N. A ridge axis extends
from northwest of our region to near 20N113W and supports 
moderate northwest winds offshore southern Baja California. High
pressure will build southeast toward the area on Friday and 
force a weakening cold front near the offshore waters. The 
pressure gradient between this high and low pressure over the 
interior southwestern United States will support fresh to strong 
north to northwest winds off northern Baja California beginning 
Friday and persisting through Sunday. Seas will build to 8 to 12 
ft during that time, highest along 30N. NW Swell to 8 ft will 
propagate as far south as 23N over the offshore waters of 
southern Baja California this weekend. Conditions will improve 
somewhat early next week, before winds and seas pick up once 
again mid to late week. 

Elsewhere between Baja California and Post-Tropical Cyclone
Adrian, mainly moderate northwest winds will prevail throughout
the forecast period with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail during the 
daytime hours, with gentle to moderate offshore winds during the 
overnight hours through the next several days. Combined seas of 
4 to 7 ft will also dominate the waters through the upcoming 
weekend and early next week. By mid week, long period southwest 
cross equatorial swell of 8 to 10 ft are forecast to move over 
the waters south of about 02N. The monsoon trough over the
offshore waters will provide focus for scattered to numerous
areas of convection throughout the forecast period. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is crossing the NW part of the discussion area from
30N135W to 28N140W. The front will dissipate from 30N125W to 
25N140W through Friday morning. As the front dissipates, strong
high pressure north of the region will begin to increase the
pressure gradient across the waters between the equatorial trough
and 30N, resulting in fresh to strong northeasterly winds north
of mainly 18N with seas building to 8 to 10 ft. These winds and
seas will prevail over the upcoming weekend. Lingering 8 to 9 ft
northeast swell will be supported by fresh trades early next week
as it propagates between 10N and 20N west of 120W. Combined SW
swell and wind waves to 8 ft currently extend along the region 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to the west of 100W. These seas 
will gradually subside below 8 ft through Friday as the SW swell 
component of the wave heights diminishes. 

$$
Latto