000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110931
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The fully exposed circulation of Tropical Depression Adrian is 
centered near 10.9N 93.5W at 11/0900 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained 
winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Adrian is weakening under 
strong upper level winds. All convection is sheared far to the 
NNE of the low level center. It is expected to transition to a 
post-tropical remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours. See 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends west of TD Adrian from 12N109W 
to 06N114W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N114W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 04N to 
10N between 83W and 89W, and north of 14N between 92W and 96W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of post-tropical Adrian will drift WNW south of 
southern Mexico through Sunday. 

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of 
California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of 
the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across 
the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo, except 
occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas. Seas
range from 4-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja California 
Norte, and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California, except 3-4 ft S
of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted elsewhere.

Little change in marine conditions is expected through Friday 
night. The pressure gradient off southern California will 
increase Saturday, supporting strong NW winds which will build 
NW swell to 8-12 ft in offshore waters N of 25N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail during the 
daytime hours, with gentle to moderate offshore winds during the 
overnight hours through the next several days. Combined seas of 
4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the remainder of 
the week and into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is approaching the NW part of the discussion area. 
The front will stall and dissipate from 30N132W to 27N140W by 
early Friday. Strong high pressure building behind the front 
will increase trades and resultant seas Friday and Saturday. 
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere N 
of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-7 ft are across this 
same area.

$$
Mundell