000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110233 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0235 UTC Thu May 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Downgraded Tropical Depression Adrian is centered near 10.5N 93.1W at 11/0300 UTC or about 365 nm SSE of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Adrian is encountering strong upper level wind shear. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is confined to the NW quadrant between 210 nm and 390 nm. Adrian is now forecast to remain a tropical depression through the next few days, then is forecast to strengthen to a minimal tropical storm late in the weekend into early next week. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 10N89W, then resumes from low pressure near 10N103W to 06N111W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N111W to 05N125W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 11N between 81W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 91W and 98W, from 06N to 10N between 96W and 100W, from 04N to 07N between 123W and 128W, and from 03N to 07N W of 133W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm in the W semicircle of the low pressure area near 06N111W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for information on Tropical Depression Adrian which is already impacting the offshore waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo, except occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas. Seas range from 4-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte, and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California, except 3-4 ft S of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted elsewhere. Little change in marine conditions is expected through the end of the week with the exception of Tropical Depression Adrian. Otherwise, by Friday night into Saturday, the pressure gradient off southern California will increase supporting strong NW winds which will build NW swell to 8-12 ft in offshore waters N of 25N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the special features section for information on Tropical Depression Adrian located SW of Central America. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail during the daytime hours, with gentle to moderate offshore winds during the overnight hours through the next several days. Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An weak 1019 mb area of high pressure near 24122W extends a ridge axis to the NW and SE. This high is forecast to weaken and dissipate through Thursday as a decaying cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area. The front will stall and dissipate itself from 30N132W to 27N140W by Thursday night. High pressure will build in behind the front increasing trades and resultant seas slightly by the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-8 ft are across this same area. $$ LEWITSKY