000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102052 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2052 UTC Wed May 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 10.5N 92.7W at 10/2100 UTC or about 374 nm SSE of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Adrian is encountering upper level wind shear and numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 240 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the NW quadrant. Adrian is expected to slowly strengthen through the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 10N90W, then resumes from low pressure near 10N103W to 06N120W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N120W to 05N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 109W and 117W, from 03N to 07N between 120W and 128W, and from 03N to 07N W of 130W. The low pressure near 10N103W has associated scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 150 nm in the SW semicircle, and also between 120 nm and 300 nm in the N quadrant. In addition, scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 78W and 85W, and from 02N to 07N between 89W and 96W, with these areas under upper level diffluence. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for information on Tropical Storm Adrian which is already impacting the offshore waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo, except occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas. Seas range from 4-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte, and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California, except 3-4 ft S of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted elsewhere. Little change in marine conditions is expected through the end of the week with the exception of Tropical Storm Adrian. Otherwise, by Friday night into Saturday, the pressure gradient off southern California will increase supporting strong NW winds which will build NW swell to 8-12 ft in offshore waters N of 25N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the special features section for information on Tropical Storm Adrian east of Central America. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail during the daytime hours, with gentle to moderate offshore winds during the overnight hours through the next several days. Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An weak area of high pressure near 23N122W extends a ridge axis to the NW and SE. This high is forecast to weaken and dissipate through Thursday as a decaying cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area. The front will stall and dissipate itself from 30N132W to 27N140W by Thursday night. High pressure will build in behind the front increasing trades and resultant seas slightly by the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-8 ft are across this same area. $$ LEWITSKY