000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1540 UTC Wed May 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 10.4N 92.7W at 10/1500 UTC or about 380 nm SSE of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 93W and 95W. Scattered moderate is elsewhere from 09N to 15N between 91W and 97W. Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N89W then from 11N96W to low pres 1008 MB 10N103W to 07N106W to 05N116W. ITCZ from 05N116W to 06N126W to 04N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 78W and 82W...from 02N to 07N between 87W and 94W...from 03N to 08N between 107W and 126W...and from 03N to 07N between 129W and 139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for information on Tropical Storm Adrian which is forecast to approach the offshore waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the week. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo...except occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas. Seas range from 5-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte...and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California... except 3-4 ft S of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted elsewhere. Little change in marine conditions is expected through the end of the week...with the exception of Tropical Storm Adrian moving into the southern-most zone late Thursday into early Thursday night. Otherwise...by Friday night into Saturday...the pressure gradient off southern California will increase supporting strong NW winds which will build NW swell to 8-12 ft in offshore waters N of 25N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the special features section for information on Tropical Storm Adrian east of Central America. Otherwise...mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail during the daytime hours...with gentle to moderate offshore winds during the overnight hours through the next several days. Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of high pressure with ridge axis extending from 29N147W to 21N118W is expected to continue weakening and dissipate as a cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area. The front will stall and dissipate from 30N132W to 27N140W by Thursday night. High pressure will build in behind the front... increasing trades and resultant seas slightly by the end of the week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-8 ft are across this same area. $$ HUFFMAN