000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Adrian centered near 10.0N 92.7W or about 420 nm 
SSE of Salina Cruz, Mexico at 0300 UTC, moving NW at 6 kt. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Numerous moderate 
and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the center, 
except 300 nm in the Nw quadrant. It is expected to gradually 
strengthen and reach hurricane force Friday, while generally 
moving WNW. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
         
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to near Tropical 
Storm Adrian to low pressure near 10N104W to 05N115W. The 
intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 05N115W to 
04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 
90 nm either side of the convergence axis between 107W and 129W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm 
in the NW quadrant of the low pressure near 10N104W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the special features section for information on Tropical 
Storm Adrian which is forecast to approach the offshore waters 
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the week.

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of 
California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 26N W of 
the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across 
the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo, except for 
fresh NW winds along the coast near Cabo San Lucas. Seas range 
from 5-8 ft in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte, 
and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California, except 3-4 ft S of 
24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted elsewhere. Little change 
in marine conditions is expected through the end of the week. By 
Friday night and Saturday, the pressure gradient off southern 
California will increase, supporting strong NW winds which will 
build NW swell to 8-11 ft in offshore waters N of 25N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian east of Central America.

Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail
during the daytime hours, with gentle to moderate offshore winds
during the overnight hours through the next several days.
Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An area of high pressure centered near 31N145W will weaken and 
dissipate through tonight as a cold front approaches the NW part 
of the discussion area. The front will stall and dissipate from 
30N132W to 28N140W by Thursday night. High pressure will build 
behind the front, increasing trades and resultant seas slightly 
by the end of the week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds 
will prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas 
of 6-9 ft are across this same area.

$$
Mundell