000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1405 UTC Tue May 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The monsoon trough continues to be convectively active across the area E of 110W during the past few days...with multiple weak low pressure centers developing along the trough. Very active deep convection surrounds a low center near 08.5N90W and continues to exhibit curved banding features with embedded clusters of scattered to numerous strong tstms. The low-level circulation center this morning was tucked beneath a burst of convection. Global models indicate that upper level conditions will remain very favorable for active convection across this area through the remainder of the week with the low center expected to gradually become better organized. This low has been assessed a high potential for development into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours as it moves slowly WNW to NW. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 09N85W to low pres near 08.5N90W 1007 mb to low pres near 10N105W 1008 mb to 06N112W. The ITCZ extends from 06N112W TO 02N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 13N between 88W and 93W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 93W and 102W...and from 10N to 13N between 104W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 114W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate W-NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California...and moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 26N W of the Baja peninsula. Elsewhere...moderate NW winds generally prevail across the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo...except for fresh NW winds along the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Seas range from 8-11 ft range in NW swell across the offshore waters off of Baja California Norte and generally 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California...except 3-4 ft across far S portions. 4-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the remainder of the forecast waters. Winds will decrease with seas subsiding gradually across the forecast waters through midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the forecast waters N of 06N while gentle to moderate winds prevail S of 06N. Seas are generally in the 4-7 ft range. An elongated cyclonic gyre associated with an active early season monsoon trough prevails across the East Pacific waters. Upper-level atmospheric conditions are conducive for sustained deep convection the next several days across Central America and the adjacent offshore waters to SE Mexico...while abundant moisture converges in the vicinity of the trough axis. Global models are in good agreement with further development of an area of low pressure currently centered near 09N90W within this larger gyre...as mentioned above in the Special Features section...but disagree on the precise location and strength of the primary low later in the forecast period. Active convection across a large area may produce periods of heavy rain across portions of the region from Panama to SW Guatemala. This area will be monitored for heavy rainfall potential along adjacent coastal zones. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area near 33N140W extends a ridge axis SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure across the SW United States is supporting fresh northerly winds across the northern waters east of 120W. Large northerly swell generated by strong winds off the coast of California supports seas to 11 ft in the waters E of 132W. The area of high pressure will weaken during the next 48 hours as a cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area Wednesday night. The front will stall and dissipate from 30N132W to 28N140W by Thursday night. $$ HUFFMAN