000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082210
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough has developed across the area 
E of 110W during the past several days, with a few weak low 
pressure centers developing along the trough in recent days. 
Active convection surrounding a low center near 07.5N89.5W has 
begun to exhibit curving bands with embedded clusters of 
scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. Global 
models continue to indicate that upper level conditions will 
remain very favorable for active convection across this area 
through the remainder of the week, and this low center may 
gradually become better organized. We are quickly approaching 
the beginning of the Northeast Pacific Hurricane Season, and 
this feature is being monitored for tropical cyclone 
development. Global models suggest that this low has a medium 
change of developing into a tropical cyclone durng the next 48 
hours as it moves very slolwy WNW to NW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
         
The monsoon trough extends from 07N76W to 05.5N82W to low pres 
near 07.5N89.5W 1008 mb to another low pres near 09.5N105W 1010 
mb to 04N112W. The ITCZ extends from 04N112W to 07N131W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 03N to 08N between 78W and 84W. Scattered to locally 
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 
12.5N between 84W and 97W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted within 210 nm N and NW of trough between 
104W and 108w...and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 118W and 
140W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the far northern Gulf of 
California, surrounding a 1009 mb low pres center near 
30.5N114.5W. Cyclonic wind flow extends well westward into the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte, where moderate to 
fresh mainly NW winds N of 26N. Moderate W to NW winds generally 
prevail across the remainder of the forecast area NW of 
Manzanillo, except for strong NW winds along the coast of Cabo 
San Lucas. Seas are in the 8-13 ft range in NWly swell over the 
offshore waters off of Baja California Norte, 1-3 ft over the 
Gulf of California, except 3-4 ft far N portions, and 4-7 ft 
over the remainder of the forecast waters.  Winds off the coast 
of Baja California Norte will diminish to 20 kt or less later 
this evening, while seas will gradually subside through midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the forecast waters north of
07N while gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 07N. Seas 
are in the 4-6 ft range. An elongated cyclonic gyre associated 
with an active early season monsoon trough prevails over the 
region. Upper atmospheric conditions are conducive for sustained 
deep convection the next several days across central America and 
adjacent offshore waters to southeastern Mexico, while abundant 
moisture converges about the elongated trough axis. Global models
are in good agreement with the development of an area of low 
pressure within this larger gyre, but disagree on the precise 
location and strength of the primary low. Active convection over 
a large area may produce periods of heavy rain across portions of
the region from Costa Rica to SW Guatemala. This area will be 
closely monitored for heavy rainfall potential along adjacent 
coastal zones.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1031 mb, centered north of the area near 
34N139W, extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure over the southwest United States is 
supporting fresh to strong northwest to north winds over the 
northern waters east of 130W. Large northerly swell generated by 
gale force winds off the coast of California is bringing seas up 
to 16 ft into the northern waters east of 127W. This northerly 
swell is producing seas greater than 8 ft over much of the 
waters north of 20N and west of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. The area of 
high pressure will weaken during the next 48 hours, which will 
diminish winds over northern waters. Seas are currently peaking 
near 16 ft today across these northern waters between 124W and 
130W and will subside below 8 ft by midweek. 

$$
Stripling