000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081501
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1329 UTC Mon May 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
         
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to low pres near 08N89W 
to another low pres near 10N105W to 04N113W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04N113W to 04N124W to beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N 
between 77W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 120 nm northwest semicircle of low 
pres near 10N105W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within
90 nm of the ITCZ between 116W and 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the far northern Gulf of
California. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the offshore
waters off the coast of Baja California Norte while gentle to 
moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the forecast area.
Seas are in the 9-13 ft range over the offshore waters off the
coast of Baja California Norte, 1-3 ft over the Gulf of
California, and 4-7 ft over the remainder of the forecast waters.  
Winds off the coast of Baja California Norte will diminish to 20 
kt or less later today, and seas will gradually subside through 
midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the forecast waters north of
07N while gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 07N. Seas 
are in the 4-6 ft range. An elongated cyclonic gyre associated 
with an active early season monsoon trough prevails over the 
region. Upper atmospheric conditions are conducive for sustained 
deep convection the next several days across central America and 
adjacent offshore waters to southeastern Mexico, while abundant 
moisture converges about the elongated trough axis. Global models
are in good agreement with the development of an area of low 
pressure within this larger gyre, but disagree on the precise 
location and strength of the primary low. Active convection over 
a large area may produce periods of heavy rain across portions of
the region from Costa Rica to SW Guatemala. This area will be 
closely monitored for improved organization and heavy rainfall 
potential along adjacent coastal zones.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1020 mb, centered north of the area near 
33N139W, extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure over the southwest United States is 
supporting fresh to strong northwest to north winds over the 
northern waters east of 130W. Large northerly swell generated by 
gale force winds off the coast of California is bringing seas up 
to 15 ft into the northern waters east of 127W. This northerly 
swell is producing seas greater than 8 ft over much of the 
waters north of 20N and west of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. The area of 
high pressure will weaken during the next 48 hours, which will 
diminish winds over northern waters. Seas peaking near 15 ft 
today will subside below 8 ft by midweek. 

$$
AL