000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080925
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
         
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a low near 08N90W to 
another low near 10N104W 1to 04N113W. The ITCZ extends from 
04N113W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 04N to 08N 
between 88W and 103W.   

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds and seas will gradually diminish this morning in the 
northern Gulf of California as a weak low pressure area moves 
inland. Fresh to strong northwesterly winds prevail over the 
coastal waters west of Baja California Norte with seas in the 8-
13 ft range in northerly swell. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW 
winds with seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail over the open waters 
from Baja California Sur to Cabo Corrientes. Winds off the coast 
of Baja California Norte will diminish to 20 kt or less later 
today, and seas will gradually subsdie through midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters with 
seas in the 4-6 ft range. An elongated cyclonic gyre associated 
with an active early season monsoon trough has developed over 
the region. Upper atmospheric conditions are conducive for 
sustained deep convection the next several days across central 
America and adjacent offshore waters to southeastern Mexico, as 
abundant moisture converges about the elongated trough axis. 
Global models are in good agreement with the development of an 
area of low pressure within this larger gyre, but disagree on 
the precise location and strength of the primary low. Active 
convection over a large area may produce periods of heavy rain 
across portions of the region from Costa Rica to SW Guatemala. 
This area will be closely monitored for improved organization 
and heavy rainfall potential along adjacent coastal zones.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered north of the area near 33N139W extends a 
ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
over the southwest United States is supporting fresh to strong n-
NW winds over the northern waters east of 130W. Large northerly 
swell generated by gale force winds off the coast of California 
is bringing seas up to 15 ft into the northern waters east of 
127W. This northerly swell is producing seas greater than 8 ft 
over the of the waters north of 20N and west of 113W. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. 
The area of high pressure will weaken during the next 48 hours, 
which will diminish winds over northern waters. Seas peaking 
near 16 ft today will subside below 8 ft by midweek. 

$$
Mundell