000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071503
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1355 UTC Sun May 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
         
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08.5N86W to 08N97W to 
10N104W to 06N113W. The ITCZ extends from 06N113W to 06N121W to  
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted from 03N to 08N between 82W and 93W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection within 150 nm north of the monsoon trough
between 103W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W and 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds have diminished below gale force across the northern Gulf 
of California, while seas over this area continue in the 8-9 ft 
range. Winds and seas will continue to diminish through Monday 
morning. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the coastal waters
off the coast of Baja California Norte with seas in the 8-13 ft
range in northerly swell. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds 
with seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail over the open waters off
the coast of Mexico. Winds off the coast of Baja California Norte
will diminish to 20 kt or less by Monday. Seas are peaking near
13 ft over this area and will start to subside overnight, falling
below 8 ft by midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters with 
seas in the 4-6 ft range. There remains uncertainty in the 
forecast toward the middle of the week. An elongated cyclonic 
circulation has developed over the region. Upper atmospheric 
conditions will remain conducive for sustained deep convection 
through the middle of next week across central America and 
adjacent offshore waters to southeastern Mexico. Global models 
are in good agreement with the development of a low pressure area
within this larger gyre, but disagree on the precise location,
and strength, of this low. However, within this broad gyre, 
active convection over a large area could lead to periods of 
heavy rainfall across portions of the region from Costa Rica to 
SW Guatemala. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb centered north of the area near 37N138W
extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure over the southwest United States is supporting fresh to
strong winds over the northern waters east of 130W. Large
northerly swell generated by gale force winds off the coast of
California is bringing seas up to 15 ft into the northern waters
east of 125W. This northerly swell is producing seas greater 
than 8 ft over the of the waters north of 20N and west of 116W. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range
prevail. The area of high pressure will weaken early this week 
which will diminish winds over the northern waters. Seas peaking 
near 15 ft today into Monday will start to subside, falling below
8 ft midweek. 

$$
AL