000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning... A late season cold front 
moving across the northern Gulf of California has induced strong 
southwest to west winds ahead of the front, with a scatterometer 
pass at 0514 UTC confirming the presence of 35 kt winds centered 
near 30.6N 113.9W. GFS Model guidance indicates the front will 
weaken later today, with winds diminishing below gale force 
shortly before sunrise. Winds and seas will diminish further 
through Monday morning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
         
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N88W to 09N101W to 
06N113W then transitions to a ITCZ, continuing beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 03N to 08N 
between 83W and 96W. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
within 150 nm north of the ITCZ west of 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail across central portions 
of the Gulf of California, and light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. The cold front moving across Baja California Norte 
this morning has freshened winds across the remaining offshore 
waters of Baja California, and 15-20 kt NW winds will prevail 
across the offshore waters W of 110W. Winds across the area are 
expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Monday. Seas will build 
to 10-15 ft in northerly swell off the coast of Baja California 
Norte today then start to subside, receding to 8-11 ft by late 
Monday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters with 
seas in the 5-7 ft range. There remains uncertainty in the 
forecast starting later today through the middle of next week. 
An elongated cyclonic circulation has started to develop over 
the region. Upper atmospheric conditions will be conducive for 
sustained deep convection this weekend through the middle of 
next week across central America and adjacent offshore waters to 
southeastern Mexico. Global models are in good agreement with 
the development of a low pressure area within this larger gyre, 
but disagree on the precise location of this low. However within 
this broad gyre, active convection over a large area could lead 
to periods of heavy rainfall across portions of the region from 
Costa Rica to SW Guatemala. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the northern waters north of 
20N and west of the cold front, currently extending from 27N115W 
to 21N120W. Seas are 9 to 12 ft between the front and 130W, and 
8 to 10 ft in NW swell W of 130W. Gale force winds north of the 
area off the coast of California has generated large NW swell 
which will peak near 16 ft over the forecast waters along 30N 
this morning through Monday morning, then slowly subside.

$$
Mundell