000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070229
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
         
The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W TO 08N80W TO 10N95W TO 
07N108W then transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 06.5N125W TO 
beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection 
is noted from 05N to 11N between 80w and 101W. Scattered 
moderate convection to strong is noted within 150 nm N and 
60 nm S of the ITCZ W of 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds and seas have diminished to 20 kt or less and less than 8 
ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. Farther 
downwind, NNE winds continue at 15-20 kt with seas of 8-9 ft 
from 10N TO 13N between 95.5W AND 99W. 

Further north, afternoon 17-1800 UTC ASCAT data covered the far 
northern Gulf of California and revealed S to SW winds 20-30 kt 
occurring N of 29.5N with gusts to near gale force likely. No 
observations have since been available over water, however 
recent observations from Los Morritos indicate frequent gusts of 
25-27 kt in the past few hours. This is occurring just ahead of 
a cold front that extends from SW Arizona through 32N115W TO 
30N115W then SW across Baja California Norte. Strong to near 
gale force southerly winds will contine throughout tonight as 
this cold front slowly moves across north portions of the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail across central portions 
of the Gulf while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. The 
cold front moving across Baja California Norte this evening has 
begun to freshen winds across the remaining offshore waters of 
Baja California, and will increase to near 25 kt N of Punta 
Eugenia through tonight, while 15-20 kt NW winds will prevail 
across the offshore waters W of 110W. Winds across the area are 
expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Monday. Seas will build 
to 10-15 ft in northerly swell off the coast of Baja California 
Norte by Sunday before starting to subside, falling to 8-11 ft 
by late Monday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters with 
seas in the 5-7 ft range. There remains uncertainty in the 
forecast starting Sunday through the middle of next week. An 
elongated cyclonic circulation has started to develop over the 
region. Upper atmospheric conditions will be conducive for 
sustained deep convection this weekend through the middle of next
week across central America and adjacent offshore waters to 
southeastern Mexico. Global models are in good agreement with the
development of a low pressure area within this larger gyre, but 
disagree on the location of this development. Regardless of any
development of a more distinct low pressure area within this
broad gyre, active convection over this area could lead to 
periods of heavy rainfall across portions of the region from 
Costa Rica to SW Guatemala. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the northern waters north of 
20N and west of the cold front, currently extending from 32N115W 
TO 30N115W TO 23N120W TO 21N124W. Seas are in the 9 to 12 ft 
range between the front and 130W, and 8 to 10 ft in NW swell W 
of 130W. Gale force winds north of the area off the coast of 
California has generated a large NW swell. Seas associated to 
this swell will peak near 16 ft over the forecast waters along 
30N Sunday through Monday morning before beginning to slowly 
subside.

$$
Stripling