000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062159
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
         
The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 10N86W TO 10.5N98W TO 
06N110W then transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 06.5N121W TO 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 11N east of 102W. Scattered moderate convection to 
strong is noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ W of 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds have diminished below gale force in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, and are 20-25 kt this afternoon, while seas have 
subsided to 6-9 ft N of 14.5N. Farther downwind, NNE winds 
continue at around 20 kt to near 11.5N97W, where recent 
altimeter data showed seas 8-12 ft. Winds and seas will continue 
to decrease through the afternoon and evening and fall below 20 
kt winds and 8 ft seas late tonight. 17-1800 UTC ASCAT data 
covered the far northern Gulf of California this afternoon and 
revealed S to SW winds 20-30 kt occurring N of 29.5N with gusts 
to near gale force likely. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere over the Gulf of California. Outside of these areas, 
winds are in the gentle to moderate range with seas in the 4-6 
ft range. A cold front approaching Baja California Norte this 
afternoon will increase winds to near 25 kt N of Punta Eugenia 
through tonight, while 15-20 kt NW winds spread elsewhere across 
the offshore waters W of 110W. Winds across the area are 
expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Monday. Seas will build 
to 10-15 ft in northerly swell off the coast of Baja California 
Norte by Sunday before starting to subside, falling to 8-11 ft 
by late Monday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters with 
seas in the 5-7 ft range. There remains uncertainty in the 
forecast starting Sunday through the middle of next week. An 
elongated cyclonic circulation has started to develop over the 
region. Upper atmospheric conditions will be conducive for 
sustained deep convection this weekend through the middle of next
week across central America and adjacent offshore waters to 
southeastern Mexico. Global models are in good agreement with the
development of a low pressure area within this larger gyre, but 
disagree on the location of this development. Regardless of any
development of a more distinct low pressure area within this
broad gyre, active convection over this area could lead to 
periods of heavy rainfall across portions of the region from 
Costa Rica to SW Guatemala. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the northern waters north of 
20N and west of 120W, as a weakening cold front has reached from 
30N117W TO 22N131W this afternoon. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft 
range over this area. Gale force winds north of the area off the 
coast of California has generated a large NW swell. Seas 
associated to this swell will peak near 16 ft over the forecast 
waters along 30N Sunday through Monday morning before beginning 
to slowly subside.

$$
Stripling