000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061508
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1416 UTC Sat May 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
         
The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N83W to 09N96W to 06N113W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N113W to 06N126W to beyond 04N140W. 
Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N 
to 13N east of 101W. Scattered moderate convection was noted 
within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 115W and 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds have diminished below gale force in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, and seas have subsided to 11 ft. Winds and seas will
continue to decrease through the day, and fall below advisory 
criteria late tonight. Winds over the far northern Gulf of 
California are reaching near gale force, with light to gentle
winds prevailing elsewhere over the Gulf of California. Outside
of these areas, winds are in the gentle to moderate range with
seas in the 4-6 ft range. Winds will increase to near 25 kt across
the Pacific waters of Baja California through tonight before
diminshing to 20 kt or less by Monday. Seas will build to 10-15 
ft in northerly swell off the coast of Baja California Norte by
Sunday before stating to subside Monday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters with 
seas in the 5-7 ft range. There remains uncertainty in the 
forecast starting Sunday through the middle of next week. An 
elongated cyclonic circulation has started to develop over the 
region. Upper atmospheric conditions will be conducive for 
sustained deep convection this weekend through the middle of next
week across central America and adjacent offshore waters to 
southeastern Mexico. Global models are in good agreement with the
development of a low pressure area within this larger gyre, but 
disagree on the location of this development. Regardless of any
development of a more distinct low pressure area within this
broad gyre, active convection over this area could lead to 
periods of heavy rainfall across portions of the region from 
Costa Rica to SW Guatemala. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the northern waters north of
20N and west of 120W. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over this
area. Gale force winds north of the area off the coast of
California has generated a large NW swell. Seas associated to
this swell will peak near 15 ft over the forecast waters along 
30N Sunday through Monday morning before beginning to subside.

$$
AL