000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022154
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
A surface trough axis extends from 10N85W to 07N94W to 07N100W
to 07N107W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N107W to 06N120W to 
04N131W to 04N133W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 83W and 87W, 
and within 60 nm of axis west of 137W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 120 nm south of axis between 98W and
104W, within 120 nm south of axis between 112W and 116W, within 
60 nm south of axis between 128W and 131W and within 30 nm of 
axis between 133W and 137W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest Ascat data and a few observations indicate light to 
gentle winds across these waters, with seas in the 5 to 6 ft
range in mixed southeast and northwest swell. Model guidance 
indicates little change forecast through Thursday at which 
time a strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico
and Bay of Campeche. Strong high pressure building in behind 
this front will build a tight pressure gradient through the
Chivela pass Thursday night leading to strong to near gale force
winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Thursday night and
to strong north to northeast gale force winds of 40 kt by Friday
afternoon. Wave model guidance forecast seas to build to 11 ft 
early Friday morning, and to around 15 ft by Friday afternoon. 
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Saturday 
morning.

Gulf of California...light and variable are present across
the Gulf under a rather weak pressure pattern, with sea state
of 0 to 2 ft. These conditions are expected to change little 
through Thursday as the present synoptic pattern remains in 
place.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range in a
southwest swell prevail over the forecast waters. These 
conditions are forecast to change little through Thursday. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over much of Costa Rica 
and Panama extends to within 300 nm south of those coasts. This 
activity is expected continue through the next 24 to 48 hours, 
with the capability of producing heavy rainfall over the interior
portions of those countries. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb centered north of the area near 36N135W
extends a ridge southeastward to 26N126W and to near 23N118W. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to 
moderate trades with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range north of the 
ITCZ. A cold front is expected to approach the northwest portion
of the area on Thursday ,then possibly move across those waters 
Thursday night followed by fresh north to northeast winds and 
seas 6 to 8 ft in a northwest swell. This swell is forecast to 
spread over those waters into Friday.

$$
Aguirre