000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021503
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1333 UTC Tue May 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 07N105W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N105W to 06N120W to 04N131W to 04N133W to 
04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 11N between 82W and 88W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 120 nm north of the trough between 93W
and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 90 nm north and 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 110W and
115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 122W and 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest observations indicate light to gentle winds over the Gulf
of California with seas in the 1-3 ft range. Fresh winds prevail
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas in the 5-6 ft range.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range
prevail. Winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria
through Thursday. A strong cold front will move across the Gulf
of Mexico Thursday and reach the Bay of Campeche Thursday. Winds
will funnel through the Chivela pass and strengthen over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec Thursday night. Winds will further increase to
gale force Friday morning. Winds in this gale force gap wind
event will peak near 40 kt Friday afternoon, with seas peaking
near 15 ft Friday night. Winds will diminish below gale force by
Saturday morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds, with seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail over
the forecast waters. Active convection continues off the coast of
Panama and Costa Rica. Winds and seas will remain below advisory
criteria through the end of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb centered north of the area near extends
a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate 
trades with seas in the 5-7 ft range N of the ITCZ. A cold front 
will approach the northwest waters Thursday which will freshen 
winds across this area. The fresh winds will spread eastward 
along with the front and usher in a fresh set of northwesterly 
swell with seas greater than 8 ft moving into the NW waters 
Thursday night into early Friday. By Friday...seas across much 
of the waters N of 24N will be 8 ft or higher.

$$
AL