000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 723 UTC Tue May 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N91W to 08N100W to 07N106W. The ITCZ extends from 07N106W to 05N114W to 06N123W to 04N133W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 86W and 91W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 12N between 90W and 103W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N between 131W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An overall relaxed pressure gradient across the northern portion of the area results in light to gentle winds prevailing across the Gulf of California this evening. In addition...with the lack of any significant features across eastern Mexico or the western Gulf of Mexico...light and variable winds are also expected to prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Wednesday. Generally light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Seas are 1-3 ft generally N of 24N across the Gulf of California and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the forecast waters. The overall tranquil weather pattern is expected through until Thursday night when a cold front is expected to move across the western Gulf of Mexico and funnel northerly winds though the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase quickly into gale force by sunrise Friday with winds peaking near 40 kt during the mid-day hours Friday. Seas are expected to build up to 14 ft during the peak of the event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across the forecast waters remain light to gentle with seas in the 4-6 ft range. An upper level anticyclonic circulation is noted on water vapor imagery centered over far western Nicaragua providing an overall diffluent environment aloft. Weak surface troughing extends the adjacent coastal waters of western Panama near 08N82W along the Central America coast to adjacent coastal waters of southern Guatemala near 14N90W. Scattered showers and scattered strong tstms are occurring within 120 nm either side of the surface trough with the most intense activity near 12N88W at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure at 1027 mb centered N of the area near 36N134W extends a ridge SE to near 16N108W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate trades with seas in the 5-7 ft range N of the ITCZ. A cold front will approach the NW waters Thursday which will freshen winds across this area. The fresh winds will spread eastward along with the front and usher in a fresh set of NW swell with seas greater than 8 ft moving into the NW waters Thursday night into early Friday. By Friday...seas across much of the waters N of 24N will be 8 ft or higher. $$ HUFFMAN