000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011504
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1301 UTC Mon May 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 04N116W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N116W to beyond 04N140W. Widely scattered 
moderate to strong convection are from 04N to 11N between 77W 
and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of
the ITCZ between 118W and 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of California, fresh
winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with gentle to 
moderate winds prevailing elsewhere over the forecast waters.
Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California and 5-7 ft over the
remainder of the forecast waters. Winds and seas will remain
below advisory criteria across the forecast waters until Thursday
night. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach
the Bay of Campeche Thursday night with winds behind the front 
funneling though the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will strengthen Thursday 
night and further increase to gale force on Friday. Winds will 
peak near 40 kt on Friday with seas peaking near 15 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds over the forecast waters are in the light to gentle range
with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Winds and seas will remain below
advisory criteria through the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
 
High pressure of 1030 mb centered north of the area near 36N135W
extends a ridge southeast to near 21N113W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds with
seas in the 5-7 ft range north of the ITCZ. A cold front will
approach the northwest waters Thursday which will freshen winds
over this area. The fresh winds will spread eastward along with
the front. The front will usher in a fresh set of northwesterly
swell with seas greater than 8 ft moving into the northwest
waters Thursday night. By Friday, seas over much of the waters 
north of 25N will be 8 ft or higher. 

$$
AL