000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010952
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0945 UTC Mon May 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from 09N84W to 09N97W to 06N106W. 
The ITCZ axis extends from 06N106W to 04N120W to beyond 03N140W.
Widely scattered moderate to strong convection are from 03N to 
12N between 84W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
04N to 09N between 111W and 116W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Mainly moderate winds prevail over the offshore waters this
morning with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The only change expected over 
the region the next few days is fresh to strong northerly winds 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec developing today, and then 
diminishing into tonight. By Friday, forecast models continue to 
agree on the development of a more significant gap wind event for
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with gale-force winds forecast 
beginning Friday and then persisting into early Saturday morning.
Current wave guidance builds seas to 8 to 14 ft over the 
offshore waters over and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during 
the late week gap event. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A surface trough across the region along with enhanced upper 
level diffluence continues to support scattered convection, which
is forecast to persist over the area the next few days. Light
winds over the area will continue through tonight with seas of 5
to 7 ft. On Tuesday, southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt
over the Ecuador offshore waters, with combined wind driven seas
and SW swell bringing seas to near 8 ft over this zone through
Thursday. By late this week winds offshore Colombia, to the 
south of the current east to west surface trough are forecast to 
increase to 15 kt.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
Nearly stationary high pressure of 1031 mb centered north of the
area near 37N135W supports a ridge that extends southeastward to
near 10N110W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the equatorial 
trough is supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds north of 
the ITCZ. Stronger winds north of the area are supporting a 
batch of 8 ft northerly swell that will occasionally cross south 
of 30N between 124W and 128W through Wednesday. By Thursday, a 
cold front will begin to cross the northwestern waters and will 
be the leading edge of freshening northeasterly winds as well as 
northwest swell of 8 to 10 ft. By late this week strong high 
pressure building north of the dissipating front will support 
winds of 20 to 25 kt across the waters north of 25N. To the south
of the ITCZ, SW cross equatorial swell will periodically cross 
north of the Equator through the week, mainly east of 120W. 

$$
Latto