000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010221 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 10N84W to 09N96W to 06N110W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N110W to 03N123W to 03N130W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 84W and 90W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the axis between 112W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the axis between 95W and 98W, also between 100W and 104W and within 60 nm south of the axis between 115W and 119W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest Ascat data and a few ship observations indicate gentle to moderate winds northerly winds off the coast of Baja California Norte with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, 5 to 7 ft off the remainder of the coast of Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of California while gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the remainder of the forecast waters through Thursday. In the long term, northerly winds will begin to increase over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning late on Thursday night, leading to the start of the next expected gale force gap wind event expected to begin early on Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active convection in the form numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the region generally south of 10N, including over the coastal and inland sections of much of Central America and Colombia through early this week. This persistent activity may lead to localized flooding over some areas of these locations. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected through early next week. Long period southwest swell producing seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will persist over these offshore waters through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Nearly stationary high pressure of 1031 mb centered north of the area near 37N135W extends a ridge southeastward to near 27N127W to near 21N118W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ. A decaying area of combined seas in the 6 to 8 ft range due to mixed northwest and southwest remains to the north of 25N between 124W and 131W. Elsewhere seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas will subside to below 8 ft over the northern portion on Wednesday. Cross-equatorial southwest swell is inducing combined seas of 6 to 8 ft over the far southern waters south of 02N between 108W and 120W. This swell will be replaced by another batch of southwest swell on Monday that will reach north to 09N between 96W and 120W. This area of swell will slowly decay through Tuesday while shifting eastward. $$ Aguirre